Emissions and removals of greenhouse gases from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: 1990-2012

This report presents a summary of the net emissions and removals of greenhouse gases for 1990-2012 by the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry sector of the UNFCCC National Inventory for each of the UK Administrations (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland)

Quantifying the physical composition of urban morphology throughout Wales based on the time series (1989-2011) analysis of Landsat TM/ETM+ images and supporting GIS data

Knowledge of impervious surface areas (ISA) and on their changes in magnitude, location, geometry and morphology over time is significant for a range of practical applications and research alike from local to global scales. Despite this, use of Earth Observation (EO) technology in mapping ISAs within some European Union (EU) countries, such as the United Kingdom (UK), is to some extent scarce. In the present study, a combination of methods is proposed for mapping ISA based on freely distributed EO imagery from Landsat TM/ETM+ sensors. The proposed technique combines a traditional classifier and a linear spectral mixture analysis (LSMA) with a series of Landsat TM/ETM+ images to extract ISA. Selected sites located in Wales, UK, are used for demonstrating the capability of the proposed method. The Welsh study areas provided a unique setting in detecting largely dispersed urban morphology within an urban-rural frontier context. In addition, an innovative method for detecting clouds and cloud shadow layers for the full area estimation of ISA is also presented herein. The removal and replacement of clouds and cloud shadows, with underlying materials is further explained. Aerial photography with a spatial resolution of 0.4 m, acquired over the summer period in 2005 was used for validation purposes. Validation of the derived products indicated an overall ISA detection accuracy in the order of ~97%. The latter was considered as very satisfactory and at least comparative, if not somehow better, to existing ISA products provided on a national level. The hybrid method for ISA extraction proposed here is important on a local scale in terms of moving forward into a biennial program for the Welsh Government. It offers a much less subjectively static and more objectively dynamic estimation of ISA cover in comparison to existing operational products already available, improving the current estimations of international urbanization and soil sealing. Findings of our study provide important assistance towards the development of relevant EO-based products not only inaugurate to Wales alone, but potentially allowing a cost-effective and consistent long term monitoring of ISA at different scales based on EO technology

Projections of emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector to 2050

• The UK is required to report projections for the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector for carbon budgets under the UK Climate Change Act, for the European Union Monitoring Mechanism, and for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. LULUCF activities can result in net emissions or removals of greenhouse gases, and changes in carbon stocks in the pools associated with LULUCF. This report provides projections at the UK and Devolved Administration (DA) level, with separate estimates for Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland, which are summed to give the UK totals. • LULUCF is divided into six land use types: 5A Forest Land, 5B Cropland, 5C Grassland, 5D Wetlands, 5E Settlements, 5F Other Land. The code refers to the IPCC inventory category of LULUCF. There is a separate inventory sector dedicated to other emissions, mainly methane and nitrous oxide, from agricultural activities. Carbon stock changes from Harvested Wood Products are reported in an additional category, 5G Other. • Projections are made for net emissions and removals of greenhouse gases to 2050, arising from LULUCF activities reported in the latest (1990‐2012) greenhouse gas inventory, for the DAs and the UK, which excludes Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies. • The LULUCF inventory now uses the CARBINE model for estimating forest carbon stocks, and models all UK forest instead of just the post‐1920 forest. As a consequence of the change in model, and corresponding changes in activity data, the projected sink for forestry is estimated to be much larger than in previous inventories. This has resulted in an increase in the total net sink for UK LULUCF being reported for all scenarios within the projections. • Four scenarios (Business‐As‐Usual (BAU), High emissions, Mid emissions and Low emissions) were constructed initially. The non‐BAU scenarios were later modified to include cropland-grassland rotations (churn ), to take into account land use changes in land that has not reached equilibrium from previous changes in land use. The scenarios were developed by a policy maker stakeholder group from trajectories in the 2050 DECC calculator report and take account of land use policies and aspirations (DECC, 2010). The BAU scenario assumes no new policy intervention. The main results are: 1. At a UK level, the LULUCF sector has been a net sink since 1998 and is predicted to remain so under all scenarios until at least 2050, although at a declining level from around 2030‐2037 onwards (depending on the scenario) mainly due to the number of trees being thinned or reaching maturity and harvested. 2. At a DA level, England will remain a net sink under all scenarios with the exception of the high emissions scenario with churn, which gives a net source from 2013 to 2016 and from 2045 onwards. 3. Scotland is a net sink under all scenarios 4. Wales is a small net sink under the Low scenarios, becomes a net source from 2043 onwards under the Mid scenario, and an increasing source from 2016 onwards under the High emissions scenario 5. Northern Ireland is either a small net sink or small net source depending on whether the churn factor is used. The LULUCF sector in the UK and in each of the DAs is dominated by CO2 emissions and removals, although N2O emissions also make a significant contribution. 6. The Forest Land, Cropland and Grassland land use categories determine the trend in the UK and each DA. The contribution from cropland and grassland to the overall trend is from changes in land use rather than from land management activities as only a few cropland and grassland management activities are currently included in the inventory. 7. The churn scenarios increase overall estimated net emissions for all scenarios for the UK and each DA, as net emissions from land use change to Cropland are maintained, rather than declining over time, as in the original scenarios

Projections of emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector to 2050

Summary for policy makers: • The UK reports projections for the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector to inform policy concerning domestic and international climate change commitments. The full projections data are available on the NAEI website (http://naei.defra.gov.uk/reports/reports?report_id=927) • LULUCF activities can result in net annual emissions or removals of greenhouse gases, and changes in carbon stocks in the pools associated with LULUCF. This report provides projections at the UK and Devolved Administration (DA) level, with separate estimates for Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland, which are summed to give the UK totals. The results presented here are based on the reporting conventions of the UNFCCC. They are not presented as potential future accounted emissions and removals under the Kyoto Protocol which are calculated formally at the end of each commitment period. • LULUCF is divided into six land use types: Forest Land (4A), Cropland (4B), Grassland (4C), Wetlands (4D), Settlements (4E), Other Land (4F). Carbon stock changes from Harvested Wood Products are reported in an additional category, Harvested Wood Products (4G). The code refers to the IPCC (2006 Guidelines) inventory category of LULUCF. There is a separate inventory sector – not presented here – dedicated to other emissions, mainly methane and nitrous oxide, from agricultural activities. • Projections are made for net emissions and removals of greenhouse gases to 2050, arising from LULUCF activities reported in the latest (1990-2014) greenhouse gas inventory, for the DAs and the UK excluding Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies. • Five scenarios (Baseline 1, Baseline 2, Central, Low and Stretch) have been described. The scenarios were developed by BEIS, Defra and the Forestry Commission and have been updated in 2016 following discussions with all of the UK administrations. The scenarios take account of current land use policies and aspirations. The Baseline scenarios are based on climate change-related and forestry policies extant in July 2009. • The main results are: At a UK level, the LULUCF sector has been a net sink since 1990 and is predicted to remain so under all scenarios until at least 2050, although at a declining level from the mid-2020s onwards (depending on the scenario). At a DA level, England and Scotland remain net sinks under all scenarios Wales is a small net sink under the Stretch scenario, but will become an increasing net source under the other scenarios between 2034 and 2049. Northern Ireland is a small net source (except in 1998 and 1999) under the Baseline and Central scenarios, but will become a small net sink from the late 2030s onwards under the Stretch and Low scenarios. The LULUCF sector in the UK and in each of the DAs is dominated by CO2 emissions and removals, although N2O emissions also make a significant contribution. The Forest Land, Cropland and Grassland categories determine the trend in the UK and DAs. The main changes in the projections since the 1990-2013 projections are: Forestry - a methodological revision of the forest carbon accounting model CARBINE to assign carbon stock changes to the correct reporting year, and the inclusion of the National Forest Inventory data (including, for the first time, small woods between 0.1 and 0.5 hectares in size) increasing tree cover and forest carbon stocks (this differs from the submitted 1990-2014 inventory). Grassland - the revision of the emission factor used for grassland on drained organic soils has reduced the size of the grassland sink

Quantifying gross vs. net agricultural land use change in Great Britain using the Integrated Administration and Control System

Land use change has impacts upon many natural processes, and is one of the key measures of anthropogenic disturbance on ecosystems. Agricultural land covers 70% of Great Britain's (GB) land surface and annually undergoes disturbance and change through farming practices such as crop rotation, ploughing and the planting and subsequent logging of forestry. It is important to quantify how much of GB's agricultural land undergoes such changes and what those changes are at an annual temporal resolution. Integrated Administration and Control System (IACS) data give annual snapshots of agricultural land use at the field level, allowing for high resolution spatiotemporal land use change studies at the national scale. Crucially, not only do the data allow for simple net change studies (total area change of a land use, in a specific areal unit) but also for gross change calculations (summation of all changes to and from a land use), meaning that both gains and losses to and from each land use category can be defined. In this study we analysed IACS data for GB from 2005 to 2013, and quantified gross change for over 90% of the agricultural area in GB for the first time. It was found that gross change totalled 63,500 km2 in GB compared to 20,600 km2 of net change, i.e. the real year-on-year change is, on average, three times larger than net change. This detailed information on nature of land use change allows for increased accuracy in modelling the impact of land use change on ecosystem processes and is directly applicable across EU member states, where collection of such survey data is a requirement. The modelled carbon flux associated with gross land use change was at times >100 Gg C y−1 larger than that based on net land use change for some land use transitions

Evidence review of the potential wider impacts of climate change mitigation options: agriculture, forestry, land use and waste sectors

A report prepared for Scottish Government. Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation is a central policy objective in Scotland. The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 sets an interim 42% reduction target for 2020 and an 80% target for 2050 across all sectors of society (1990 baseline). As a priority policy area, it has become vital to better understand the co-benefits and adverse impacts arising from mitigation actions on our environment, economy and society. Integrated assessment is key in prioritising environmental actions, reducing adverse impacts and enhancing positive co-effects. This report aims to summarise evidence on the wider impacts (WI) of GHG mitigation options (MO) in the Agriculture, land use, land use change and forestry sectors (ALULUCF) and those related waste management. The key findings of the review, are a summary of the wider impacts and an overview of the challenges in quantifying and monetising these impacts

Capturing cropland and grassland management impacts on soil carbon in the UK LULUCF inventory

This project aimed to identify the extent to which emissions due to changes in Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) stocks arising from Cropland and Grassland/Grazing Land management can be incorporated into the UK’s Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) inventory. Key management activities were identified which might affect SOC stocks. A literature review carried out as part of the project concluded that tillage reduction cannot be considered a reliable management option to increase the SOC content of UK soils. However increasing crop residue returns and increasing inputs of manure and fertiliser could increase SOC stock although the SOC stock increases resulting from manure and fertiliser inputs could be outweighed by increases nitrous oxide emissions and the risk of nitrate run-off. The review found that increasing crop yields through increased fertilisation and improved crop rotation could increase the annual input of crop residues and root exudate to soils and hence increase SOC on low fertility soils. Manure additions resulted in greater C sequestration than the addition of equivalent amounts of N as mineral fertiliser and the effect lasted longer. However, increasing inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser or manure risk increasing N2O emissions which could negate any increases in SOC stock. IPCC default stock change factors were judged to be inappropriate to the UK, based on expert opinion and the literature review findings. Therefore the project used the Daily DayCent and Landscape DNDC models to attempt to estimate stock change factors for Cropland management activities under UK conditions. Although based on a very limited dataset this suggested that the effect of Cropland management activities under UK conditions might be less than implied by the IPCC stock change factors. Tillage reduction was found to have little effect on SOC stocks. Increasing manure and crop residue inputs increased SOC stocks, with manure inputs being particularly effective. A framework for reporting SOC stock changes resulting from Cropland management was developed, and used to assess mitigation options. Overall the impact of Cropland Management on SOC is likely to be very small compared to other activities in the LULUCF inventory such as land use change. The most effective mitigation option was using Cropland from annual tillage crops to perennial crops, fallow and set aside. However given the need for food production there is limited scope for such change. Increasing manure, fertiliser and crop residue inputs gave smaller increases in SOC stocks, but practical considerations limit the scope of these actions. Lack of field data on the effect of Grassland improvement on SOC stocks was identified as a knowledge gap. The literature review suggested that intensification could increase SOC stocks under pasture on mineral soils. However, expert opinion suggested that this might not be the case for rough grazing on organo-mineral soils, where intensification might lead to SOC loss. This lack of data meant that it was not possible to calibrate or validate models to estimate UK specific stock change factors for Grassland. As the IPCC stock change factors were judged to be inappropriate to UK conditions assessment of the mitigation potential of Grassland management using these factors was not carried out to avoid presenting potentially misleading results. Suggested strategies for filling these knowledge gaps are outlined in the report. Attempts to assess grass/crop rotation patterns across the UK using data from the Integrated Administration and Control System (IACS) used to handle Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments were hampered by difficulties in obtaining access to the data. However land use change matrices were generated for England and Wales, and used to map areas of change. Subject to data availability, this approach could be used in future inventories to give a better representation the effect of rotation patterns on SOC stocks

Genomic, Pathway Network, and Immunologic Features Distinguishing Squamous Carcinomas

This integrated, multiplatform PanCancer Atlas study co-mapped and identified distinguishing molecular features of squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) from five sites associated with smokin

Glastir Monitoring & Evaluation Programme. First year annual report

The Welsh Government has commissioned a comprehensive new ecosystem monitoring and evaluation programme to monitor the effects of Glastir, its new land management scheme, and to monitor progress towards a range of international biodiversity and environmental targets. A random sample of 1 km squares stratified by landcover types will be used both to monitor change at a national level in the wider countryside and to provide a backdrop against which intervention measures are assessed using a second sample of 1 km squares located in areas eligible for enhanced payments for advanced interventions. Modelling in the first year has forecast change based on current understanding, whilst a rolling national monitoring programme based on an ecosystem approach will provide an evidence-base for on-going, adaptive development of the scheme by Welsh Government. To our knowledge, this will constitute the largest and most in-depth ecosystem monitoring and evaluation programme of any member state of the European Union